Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Death & Risk: Some Perspective

Our intuition about risk does not often comport with the available statistics. We tend to be afraid of incredibly rare things like terrorism or school shootings, while downplaying the dangers of something as mundane as driving a car. The number of annual gun deaths in the United States is roughly the same as those who die in car accidents every year, about 30 000. About two thirds of those gun deaths are from suicide. Yet we tend to be quite a bit more fearful of gun violence than car violence. The fear is not proportional to the data.

It's not that we shouldn't be afraid of guns. Rather, we should be more cognizant of just how risky driving can be. The psychology of fear is not always rational, and what we are exposed to in the media certainly skews our perspective even further. This is just one example among many, of course. Summer beach season is approaching, which can only mean one thing... SHARKS!

So what should we be afraid of? Well that depends on when and where you live(d), but here's a pretty good breakdown of death in the 20th Century. If that's not enough, here's a handy list of 150 things smart people are worried about. Some responses are serious, others not so much. (I think water scarcity is going to become a big deal globally fairly soon.)

But aside from risk and fear, what do we think about the numbers? As I was scrolling through this infographic comparing death toll numbers, I was reminded of this statistic: Over seven million children die every year before reaching the age of five.

Just let that thought detonate in your brain.

Now consider how little sleep you will lose over it.

Scary. Now imagine trying not to lose any sleep if you learned that you will lose your little finger tomorrow (à la Adam Smith).

Scarier.