Thursday, July 24, 2014

Plane Drain

It has been a rough year for airplanes. More specifically, it's been a rough week. This torrent of tragedies has garnered about as much media attention as is allowable against the backdrop of the Israeli ground invasion in Gaza. That these accidents have all occurred in a startlingly short period of time is purely coincidental. I haven't checked, but I'm sure the interwebs is abuzz with various conspiracy theories.

But more importantly, the recent loss of life from airline crashes may skew the perception of how safe air travel really is. Looking at the numbers, deaths from plane crashes has been trending lower in the last decade or so. However, 2014 is proving to be an aberration:

(Chart from The Upshot)

It's easy to see from the graph that air travel related deaths peaked prior to the 1980s, but has been decreasing ever since. Planes have never been safer, despite the anomaly that this year is turning out to be. Regardless of the news coverage of the recent disasters, there is no reason to fear air travel. As a matter of comparison, an average of 2 500 Canadians per year died in motor vehicle traffic accidents between 2007-2011. This is not an insignificant number, especially when you consider that the airline fatalities represent global totals. I don't even want to look at the global number of car deaths per year.

In an ironic twist, some people choose to avoid air travel in response to hearing about plane crashes. They opt to drive instead, and thus increase their risk of injury or death. This is precisely what happened after 9/11 resulting in and esitmated 1 600 more traffic deaths in America than would normally be expected. Granted, this phenomenon was also bound up with the fear of terrorist attacks, but the worry was directed primarily at airline safety.

It is necessary to put the terrible news about the recent plane crashes in context and bring some perspective to the number of fatalities. Don't be afraid to fly. It's still much safer than driving. Whenever you get worked up about your next flight, try to remember how many planes take off and land all over the world every day without any trouble at all. Normal, mundane things that go as planned simply don't make the news. Oddly, neither do most motor vehicle accidents unless they're particularly large or dramatic, or if you live in a small town. And if more people choose to fly, that means more room on the roads for motorists -- which makes everyone safer!